ABSTRACT

Maritime transport serves as the backbone of international trade and is one of the most preferred means of transporting goods around the world. The cost-effectiveness and ability to deliver goods and services across vast geographical areas highlights this mode of transport while also establishing it as a fundamental component of global trade, particularly through freight markets. Freight markets play a critical role in measuring the costs associated with maritime transport and are fraught with uncertainties; unforeseen developments, such as climatic conditions, geopolitical tensions and global economic fluctuations, lead to price volatility and increased risks in these markets. In this context, one of the most important indicators used to monitor maritime transport dynamics and make forecasts is the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). The BDI measures the shipping costs of dry bulk commodities and significantly reflects global economic trends related to maritime transport. Reported daily by the Londonbased Baltic Exchange, this index is also a critical indicator for financial markets; fluctuations in the BDI influence not only the shipping sector but also the commodity and stock markets, thereby shaping overall trends in global trade. This study focuses on the effects of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Dollar Index (DXY) on the Istanbul Freight Index (ISTFIX), which directs maritime trade. Using weekly data from 2008 to 2024, the analysis is conducted through VAR analysis and Granger causality tests. The findings indicate that the Baltic Dry Index has a positive effect on the Istanbul Freight Index. Additionally, it has been determined that the Dollar Index exerts a negative effect on the Istanbul Freight Index and is a weak determinant. Furthermore, causality analyses reveal a bidirectional causal relationship between BDI and ISTFIX.